What if the FDA's accelerated-approval pathway is gutted?
Gutting FDA accelerated approval repricing speculative biotech is an XBI/duration story — long-dated cash-flow names get hit as the discount rate on far-off milestones rises; short XBI and clinical-stage credit. Rhymes with the 2021-22 biotech bear (XBI -60% peak-to-trough on rate/regulatory derisking). The financial_conditions tag pairs oddly with a tightening event; spillover to broad crypto is overstated versus a focused biotech-and-HY-credit hit.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Court ruling and reform gut FDA accelerated approval, delaying dozens of pipeline drugs and repricing speculative biotech. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.