What if the FDA permanently bars compounders from copying GLP-1 drugs?
Direct chain: a final 503B exclusion strands the remaining compounders and funnels demand back to branded semaglutide/tirzepatide — bullish Lilly/Novo volumes, bearish compounding pharmacies and telehealth GLP-1 resellers (Hims). Rhymes with the 2024 end of the semaglutide shortage that already cratered compounder/Hims revenue expectations. Pure regulatory micro-event — the empty/near-zero cascade is correct; no tradeable macro signal.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. FDA issues its final rule permanently excluding semaglutide and tirzepatide from the 503B bulks list, stranding remaining compounders and spiking branded demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Growth surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.