What if Florida repeals all childhood school vaccine mandates?
Florida repealing childhood vaccine mandates accelerates measles resurgence — a public-health and local-fiscal strain, not an oil-demand collapse; the WTI/jet-fuel/Exxon cascade is mis-mapped. Measles outbreaks (2019 NY, 2025 TX) strained health systems with zero crude impact. Real transmission is to vaccine makers (modest volume bump), insurers, and school-district budgets; cross-asset spillover is negligible.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Florida fully enacts statewide repeal of all childhood school vaccine mandates, accelerating measles resurgence, school outbreaks, and public-health system strain nationwide. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.