What if a hurricane triggers mass Florida insurer insolvencies?
A major hurricane bankrupting thin Florida insurers strands mortgages that require coverage and spikes catastrophe-reinsurance pricing — the genuine market read is a P&C/reinsurance equity hit and Florida muni/MBS stress, NOT the modeled VIX +3.9% and risk-parity delever, which absurdly overstate a regional insurance event as a systemic vol shock. Rhymes with Hurricane Andrew (1992), which insolvent-ed several Florida insurers and reset reinsurance rates. The geopolitical_risk root is plainly wrong for a hurricane; map to climate-supply and credit.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A major hurricane bankrupts several thinly-capitalized Florida insurers, stranding mortgages that require coverage. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.