What if a crop-disease outbreak threatens the global food supply?
A crop-disease/agri-contamination crisis lifts grains first - wheat and corn on yield loss - feeding food CPI and pressuring food-importing EM FX. Rhymes with the 2010-11 Russian wheat-export-ban spike and the 2022 Ukraine grain shock, both of which drove sharp grain rallies and EM food-inflation stress. Transmission: the squeeze hits net food importers (MENA, parts of Asia/Africa) hardest via the currency and the subsidy bill. Forward angle: today's higher baseline stocks-to-use and substitution cushion the move versus 2022, so favor the grain/fertilizer long over the broad inflation trade.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A crop-disease / agri-bio contamination crisis threatens the food supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -3.17–+0.89% |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.46–+1.04% |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.74–+0.17% |
| 4 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.96–+4.98% |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.55–+0.15% |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's WHEAT/CORN longs: history's negatives are regime noise from tin, gold-squeeze and rice-ban windows unrelated to crop disease — thin off-channel sample; an agri-bio supply shock is mechanically grain-bullish.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.4% | 69% | 39 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 67% | 39 | 0.27 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -3.4% | 60% | 39 | 0.16 | · |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.8% | 58% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d 0bp | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.4% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | LONG | +4.6% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -4.1% | 51% | 39 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 51% | 39 | 0.02 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.3% | 51% | 39 | 0.02 | · |
Why this probability
Crop-disease/agri-bio shocks recur (ASF, H5N1); a food-supply-threatening crisis moderate over 1-3yr. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.