What if a crop-disease outbreak threatens the global food supply?
A crop-disease/agri-contamination crisis lifts grains first - wheat and corn on yield loss - feeding food CPI and pressuring food-importing EM FX. Rhymes with the 2010-11 Russian wheat-export-ban spike and the 2022 Ukraine grain shock, both of which drove sharp grain rallies and EM food-inflation stress. Transmission: the squeeze hits net food importers (MENA, parts of Asia/Africa) hardest via the currency and the subsidy bill. Forward angle: today's higher baseline stocks-to-use and substitution cushion the move versus 2022, so favor the grain/fertilizer long over the broad inflation trade.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A crop-disease / agri-bio contamination crisis threatens the food supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.