What if gene-edited pig-organ transplants fail with deadly rejection?
A xenotransplant hyperacute-rejection failure freezes a tiny pre-revenue sector (eGenesis, United Therapeutics) — micro-cap idiosyncratic risk with no macro footprint. Closest rhyme is the gene-therapy safety halts of 2021-22 (bluebird/Novartis Zolgensma deaths) that gutted the names but not the tape. The risk-off crypto cascade massively overstates transmission; effectively zero cross-asset impact.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Xenotransplant trial of gene-edited pig kidneys fails with hyperacute rejection deaths, freezing the xenotransplantation sector. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.