What if the FDA bans imports from a giant Indian generics plant?
An FDA ban on a giant Indian generics plant (Sun/Aurobindo/Dr Reddy's echoes of Ranbaxy 2013) drives US drug shortages and price spikes — a health-inflation and India-pharma-export shock, not a tech-tariff event. The semis/TSMC/Alibaba cascade is entirely mis-mapped. Transmission: US buyers scramble for ex-India supply, India pharma ADRs and the rupee's pharma-export line take the hit; medical-care CPI ticks up.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. FDA bans imports from a giant Indian generic plant over data fraud, triggering US drug shortages and price spikes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.