What if Geopolitical shock briefly bids BTC as a digital safe haven?
An acute geopolitical flare-up sees capital flee to portable, censorship-resistant assets, producing a short-lived BTC haven bid amid broad risk-off.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An acute geopolitical flare-up sees capital flee to portable, censorship-resistant assets, producing a short-lived BTC haven bid amid broad risk-off. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▲ · Crypto confidence ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.4% hist -0.52–+13.46% · other way +2.32% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.5% hist -1.56–-0.71% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.56–+1.4% · other way +25.77% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.07–-0.36% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.5% hist -9.33–+1.69% · other way +1.73% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.52–-0.15% · other way +0.35% (n=12) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.82–-0.02% · other way +2.34% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% hist -6.06–+1.69% · other way +3.71% (n=12) |
| 9 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.58–+10.7% · other way +20.0% (n=12) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.03–+1.11% · other way -0.04% (n=12) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.24–+0.03% · other way +3.29% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.51–-0.18% · other way -0.03% (n=12) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.79–+2.45% · other way -4.22% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.62–+0.18% · other way -0.13% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +9.3% · 5d +6.3% | 71% | 31 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.1% · 5d -6.3% | 75% | 23 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d -4.2% | 68% | 26 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.2% · 5d +3.8% | 65% | 20 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.6% | 66% | 29 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 64% | 29 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 34 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 28 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 60% | 28 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -3.3% | 59% | 29 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 28 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d +3bp ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.13 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.3% | 57% | 29 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |