Geopolitical risk
Every scenario in which geopolitical risk is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
1,340 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
61%▲ 1–3 years
What if Mexico's second judicial election seats more inexperienced judges?
55%▼ 1–3 years
What if Red Sea reopens, freight and oil premia unwind?
54%▼ 1–3 years
What if Junta-coastal détente reopens Sahel trade?
54%▲ 1–3 years
What if FY27 $1.5T US defense request cements a multi-year procurement boom?
53%▼ 1–3 years
What if AU secures funding to hold Mogadishu?
51%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia's Africa Corps deepens Sahel footprint?
50%▲ 3–10 years
What if NATO commits to 5%-of-GDP by 2035?
50%▼ 1–3 years
What if Sahel ceasefire halts the jihadist advance?
50%▼ 1–3 years
What if Ecuador security gains revive investor confidence?
50%▲ 1–3 years
What if Defense-prime record backlogs underwrite a decade of revenue visibility?
50%▲ 1–3 years
What if Munitions replenishment drives a 155mm and missile super-cycle?
49%▲ 1–3 years
What if Central-bank gold super-surge tops 1,300t/yr?
48%▲ 1–3 years
What if Sahel insurgency breaks into coastal Benin?
47%▼ 3–10 years
What if TSMC Arizona 2nm ramp dilutes Taiwan single-point-of-failure?
47%▼ 1–3 years
What if Sudan reconstruction reopens Red Sea gold trade?
46%▲ 0–6 months
What if drone strikes cripple a fifth of Russia's refining?
46%▼ 3–10 years
What if Middle Corridor scales as a Russia-bypass artery?
46%▼ 3–10 years
What if Haiti reconstruction plan reopens to investment?
45%▲ 3–10 years
What if Russia rebuilds forces during a frozen-conflict pause?
45%▼ 3–10 years
What if EU energy independence from Russia is completed?
45%▲ 3–10 years
What if European strategic autonomy in defense takes shape?
45%▼ 1–3 years
What if Haiti stabilization mission restores partial order?
45%▲ 6–18 months
What if Venezuela hyperinflation re-accelerates as bolivar collapses?
45%▲ 1–3 years
What if NATO 5%-of-GDP pledge unleashes European rearmament order wave?
44%▲ 0–6 months
What if RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine?
44%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sudan refugee surge strains Chad and South Sudan?
44%▲ 6–18 months
What if Venezuela transition fragments, migration surges north?
44%▼ 1–3 years
What if Silicon-shield diversification de-risks leading-edge supply?
43%▲ 1–3 years
What if Gulf of Guinea piracy resurges off Nigeria-Benin?
42%▼ 3–10 years
What if TSMC Japan Kumamoto cluster diversifies node geography?
42%▼ 1–3 years
What if CEE convergence trade revives after de-escalation?
42%▲ 1–3 years
What if Haiti collapse forces a multinational intervention?
41%▼ 1–3 years
What if Russia and Ukraine sign a final peace settlement?
41%▲ 6–18 months
What if Mediator fatigue stalls the Ukraine peace process?
41%▲ 3–10 years
What if Arctic militarization race lifts Nordic defense?
41%▼ 3–10 years
What if NATO eastern-flank deterrence proves credible?
41%▲ 6–18 months
What if Burkina Faso junta loses the north to JNIM?
41%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ethiopia-Eritrea border clash reignites Tigray front?
41%▲ 1–3 years
What if NATO 5%-of-GDP rearmament supercycle?
41%▲ 1–3 years
What if Germany Zeitenwende fund scales Rheinmetall into a European champion?
41%▲ 1–3 years
What if Air-and-missile-defense demand drives Patriot/THAAD backlog records?
41%▲ 1–3 years
What if European 'buy-European' defense mandate redirects orders from US primes?
40%▲ 1–3 years
What if the far-right AfD enters a German state government?
40%▲ 1–3 years
What if Hungary and Slovakia veto EU treaty change?
40%▲ 1–3 years
What if Meloni's government collapses and Italy heads to snap elections?
40%▼ 1–3 years
What if Ethiopia-Eritrea sea-access deal averts war?
40%▲ 1–3 years
What if Venezuela-Guyana clash pulls in US carrier group?
39%▲ 0–6 months
What if China reinstates its antimony export ban?
39%▼ 1–3 years
What if Reconstruction boom lifts CEE and the euro?
39%▼ 3–10 years
What if Central Asia pivots westward post-ceasefire?
39%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ethiopia internal conflict spreads to Amhara and Oromia?
38%▲ 1–3 years
What if AES quits CFA franc, West African FX splits?
38%▲ 0–6 months
What if M23 advances on Uvira, threatening Lake Tanganyika?
38%▲ 1–3 years
What if Venezuela-backed influx destabilizes Trinidad and Guyana?
38%▲ 1–3 years
What if Wider Sahel war draws in coastal militaries?
38%▼ 1–3 years
What if Cross-strait status quo holds, tail risk fades?
38%▼ 1–3 years
What if Middle East normalization lowers oil risk premium?
37%▲ 0–6 months
What if Moody's strips France of another notch?
37%▼ 3–10 years
What if Global 'silicon shield' diversification halves Taiwan chip share?
37%▼ 0–6 months
What if Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the line?
37%▼ 1–3 years
What if Eurasian de-escalation revives global risk appetite?
37%▲ 6–18 months
What if RSF takes el-Obeid, splitting Sudan in two?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if Drone and counter-UAS spending mints new defense-tech winners?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if Indo-Pacific deterrence buildout lifts allied Asian defense budgets?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if Defense-electronics and C5ISR demand lifts L3Harris and Leidos?
36%▲ 0–6 months
What if blockades shut down Peru's southern copper belt?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if Western intel warns of a 2027 Russia-NATO window?
36%▼ 1–3 years
What if Venezuela-Guyana ICJ ruling defuses Essequibo?
36%▼ 6–18 months
What if Iran sanctions relief adds 1.3 mb/d into an oversupplied market?
36%▲ 1–3 years
What if Gold rallies as US debt-ceiling brinkmanship hits Treasuries?
36%▲ 6–18 months
What if Golden Dome missile-defense program ignites a space/sensor spending boom?
36%▼ 6–18 months
What if Ukraine ceasefire de-rates European defense stocks from records?
35%▲ 0–6 months
What if Iran's inflation tops 80 percent as deficit monetisation accelerates?
35%▲ 0–6 months
What if war takes Ukraine's farmland out of production?
35%▼ 3–10 years
What if Friend-shored chip fabs make Asia chip-supply resilient?
35%▼ 6–18 months
What if PLN rallies as the eastern-front risk premium fades?
35%▼ 1–3 years
What if Washington Accords deliver Rwandan withdrawal?
35%▲ 0–6 months
What if India extends rice export ban amid election-year inflation?
34%▲ 3–10 years
What if China and Russia formalise an anti-Western alliance?
34%▼ 3–10 years
What if KMT 2028 win ushers in a cross-strait economic thaw?
34%▼ 1–3 years
What if Global de-escalation drives a synchronized risk-on year?
34%▲ 0–6 months
What if Russia tightens wheat export quota and floating duty?
33%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Congo cuts its cobalt export quota deeper?
33%▼ 1–3 years
What if TSMC dual-fab Japan+US strategy compresses TWD risk premium?
33%▼ 3–10 years
What if Taiwan completes LNG storage buildout to a 24-day buffer?
33%▼ 3–10 years
What if Northern Sea Route opens as a stable trade lane?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Drone-and-munitions buildout reshapes defense spend?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Reserve-asset seizure precedent accelerates gold de-dollarization?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Shipbuilding push funds a US Navy fleet-expansion super-cycle?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if TWD carry rebuilds as Strait tensions normalize lower?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if Philippine PSEi rerates as the US alliance anchors stability?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-Mexico security pact replaces unilateral strikes?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if Gold breaks $4,000 on reserve and haven bid?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if AUKUS submarine pact accelerates Indo-Pacific build?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if Malaysia 1MDB-style governance shock revives political risk?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if South Korea defense-export boom (K9, tanks, jets) scales globally?
32%▲ 3–10 years
What if India squanders its dividend as jobs lag the youth bulge?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if Portugal's far right becomes kingmaker?
31%▲ 0–6 months
What if ransomware shuts down a national hospital network?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if Trump-Xi détente reopens US-China mil-to-mil hotline?
31%▼ 1–3 years
What if KRW rallies as a Peninsula thaw and chip cycle align?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if Diversified chip geography blunts a Taiwan scare's market hit?
31%▼ 1–3 years
What if Stable yen and resilient chips underpin an Asia soft landing?
31%▲ 1–3 years
What if Sudan hardens into two rival states?
31%▲ 6–18 months
What if South African PGM shaft closures deepen platinum deficit?
30%▲ Imminent
What if the Red Sea needs naval convoys to move trade?
30%▼ 1–3 years
What if Peninsula peace dividend reopens Kaesong-style North-South trade?
30%▼ 1–3 years
What if Broad Asia-Pacific peace dividend compresses regional vol?
30%▲ 0–6 months
What if Winter grid blitz spikes TTF to EUR90?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if Peru Las Bambas road blockade chokes copper concentrate exports?
30%▲ 3–10 years
What if Africa's youth bulge turns to unrest as jobs fail to materialize?
30%▲ 3–10 years
What if Automation offsets aging but widens inequality and political risk?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if Trump freezes Taiwan arms sale as a Xi bargaining chip?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Xi signals 'patience' on reunification, dropping timeline talk?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Regional détente and chip diversification lift Asian tech broadly?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Peninsula calm and an HBM upcycle drive Korean tech to records?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if Russia-Ukraine ceasefire eases energy and risk?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Korea-Japan-US trilateral deepens deterrence and trade?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Ukraine reconstruction boom lifts EU industrials and EUR?
29%▲ 3–10 years
What if Youth-unemployment-driven migration surge strains EU politics?
28%▼ 6–18 months
What if the US and China strike a sweeping trade détente?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if allies ban quantum-computing technology exports to China?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US imposes a blanket 60% tariff on all Chinese imports and Beijing retaliates in kind?
28%▼ 3–10 years
What if Cross-strait flights and tourism fully restored under KMT thaw?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Taiwan invasion-fear bid lifts gold and the yen as havens?
28%▼ 3–10 years
What if Cross-strait CBMs cut accidental-clash risk to a multi-year low?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan defense budget hits 2% of GDP, anchoring deterrence?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-Japan-Korea trilateral pact hardens regional deterrence?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if EU lends EUR140bn against frozen Russian assets?
28%▼ 6–18 months
What if Peace deal de-rates Rheinmetall and EU defense?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Petro-yuan oil invoicing expands in the Gulf?
28%▲ 3–10 years
What if Space militarization opens a defense-space cycle?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if Détente caps defense spending, peace dividend returns?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Shadow-fleet insurance dragnet strands 1 mb/d of Russian crude?
28%▲ 0–6 months
What if Nigerian force-majeure outage cuts 0.4 mb/d of Bonny Light?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Manganese supply squeeze on a Gabon and South Africa shock?
28%▼ 6–18 months
What if Cheaper grain eases import-country food inflation and FX?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Hypersonics and space-warfare programs drive next-gen defense R&D?
28%▼ 6–18 months
What if Middle East ceasefire cools the air-defense and munitions trade?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if AUKUS submarine program anchors a multi-decade naval industrial base?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Counter-drone and EW procurement creates new defense winners?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sanchez falls and the far-right Vox enters power?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if failed sanctions talks collapse Iran's rial past 1.6 million?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if the SNB sells reserves to weaken a soaring franc?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if mBridge lets oil settle around the dollar?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Druzhba pipeline is severed for good?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if China fully halts rare-earth magnet exports?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if India suspends the Indus Waters Treaty?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if food-price riots erupt across the Sahel?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if hundreds of PLA aircraft saturate Taiwan's air-defence zone daily?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Lebanon ceasefire collapses and Israel bombs Beirut?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if a renewed Gaza war spills across the region?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if the administration purges the press corps' credentials?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if a police killing ignites a nationwide banlieue uprising in France?
27%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-China codify Taiwan 'no surprises' military protocol?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Korean defense-export boom outlasts a Peninsula thaw?
27%▼ 1–3 years
What if China-India border disengagement reopens trade and flights?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if Secondary sanctions hit China-Russia oil trade?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if China insists MDB claims share losses, freezing a restructuring?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if Libyan blockade force-majeure pulls 0.7 mb/d offline?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if Geopolitical shock sends gold to record as haven demand spikes?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Belarus-Russia potash sanctions re-squeeze world supply?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if Ukraine planted-area collapse cuts the global corn surplus?
27%▲ 3–10 years
What if China pension shortfall forces retirement age up amid unrest risk?
27%▲ 3–10 years
What if Russia's population decline tightens its labor and conscription pool?
27%▲ 3–10 years
What if India's jobless-growth model leaves graduates underemployed at scale?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if North Korea tests a nuke and fires over Japan?
26%▲ 0–6 months
What if Haiti's transitional government collapses entirely?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if cascading US-China-EU tariff blocs cut global trade volumes by 20%?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Mozambique insurgency spreads south from Cabo Delgado?
26%▼ 1–3 years
What if Kazakhstan's Trans-Caspian Middle Corridor scales up?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if DRC cobalt-copper export quota tightens global copper units?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Eastern DRC conflict severs cobalt hydroxide logistics?
26%▲ 0–6 months
What if Global food-price crisis as the FAO index spikes to a record?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Mideast escalation spikes oil and hits airlines while lifting defense?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if EM youth-unemployment shock sparks a wave of social unrest?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if Israel and Saudi Arabia normalise relations?
25%▲ 1–3 years
What if Reform UK wins the next general election?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if Asia-Pacific de-escalation revives broad EM-Asia carry inflows?
25%▼ 3–10 years
What if US-China stable coexistence framework caps Asia tail-risk?
25%▼ 1–3 years
What if Korea peace process draws record foreign inflows into KOSPI?
25%▲ 0–6 months
What if Ecuador narco-violence overwhelms state control?
25%▲ 0–6 months
What if Peru political-instability spasm dents investor confidence?
25%▲ 3–10 years
What if De-dollarization push grows local-currency settlement of trade debt?
25%▲ 1–3 years
What if Tin solder squeeze on Indonesian and Myanmar supply hits?
25%▼ 6–18 months
What if Defense valuation reset as peace-dividend narrative gains traction?
25%▲ 3–10 years
What if Egypt's youth bulge curdles into instability under FX stress?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if attackers steal signing keys from a CI/CD platform?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US applies 25% Section-232 tariffs on imported autos and parts from the EU, Japan and Korea?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Trump-Xi 'grand bargain' trades tariffs for Taiwan restraint?
24%▼ 1–3 years
What if ASEAN-China sign a binding South China Sea Code of Conduct?
24%▼ 1–3 years
What if Chip-supply diversification cuts SMH's beta to Asia headlines?
24%▼ 1–3 years
What if Gulf deconfliction protocol secures tanker lanes?
24%▲ 0–6 months
What if Sahel jihadist offensive cuts Mali gold roads?
24%▼ 1–3 years
What if Quad-brokered Sudan ceasefire holds?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if BRICS+ expansion and BRICS Pay scale settlement?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia-Ukraine war escalates, NATO friction rises?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Allied AI-chip cartel coordinates export policy?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Philippines POGO ban removed as tail risk, sentiment lifts?
24%▼ 1–3 years
What if Middle Corridor boom lifts Central Asia and the Caucasus?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Yuan-gold linkage deepens as Shanghai gold pricing power grows?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Rare-earth magnet chokepoint halts F-35 and missile production lines?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Pakistan's unemployed youth bulge raises an instability premium?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if South Africa's youth-unemployment trap deepens with no dividend?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if France scraps its pension reform for good?
23%▲ 0–6 months
What if anti-immigration race riots resurge across English cities?
23%▲ 0–6 months
What if US approves $5B Taiwan arms package; Beijing sanctions primes?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if Trump-Kim summit yields a 'cold peace' testing freeze?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-China resume working-level military talks, cutting accident risk?
23%▼ 3–10 years
What if Taiwan-China economic interdependence deepens, lowering war odds?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if Asia-Pacific guardrails agreement lowers cross-asset volatility?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if Regional de-escalation unwinds the structural gold haven bid?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if Strategic-reserve coordination caps any Hormuz spike?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if Peace dividend narrows Brent-WTI back to freight?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if Cocoa-belt terror shock hits Ivory Coast?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Mali ditches French CFA reserves for gold-backed plan?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if DRC tantalum and tin squeeze hits electronics?
23%▲ 0–6 months
What if Haiti gang coalition collapses the transitional state?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sahel coup contagion topples another West African leader?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Iraq federal-Kurdish dispute halts 0.4 mb/d via Ceyhan?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Chile-Codelco lithium partnership reshapes Atacama output?
23%▼ 6–18 months
What if Russia normalizes fertilizer logistics and exports surge?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if Defense-equity bull as rearmament lifts order backlogs?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if a coup in a critical-minerals nation chokes supply?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if erratic tariff threats freeze global corporate investment?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI lowers the bioweapon barrier?
22%▲ 3–10 years
What if Ocean fisheries collapse?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Beijing-Taipei resume semi-official SEF-ARATS talks?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Inter-Korean military hotline and DMZ de-mining resume?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if China-Japan détente restores the maritime crisis hotline?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Manila-Beijing 'gentlemen's agreement' calms the SCS for a year?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-China hotline use defuses an Asian near-miss crisis?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Taiwan-China military hotline established, cutting clash risk?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Trump-Xi Taiwan understanding caps the 2027 invasion-window fear?
22%▼ 3–10 years
What if Sustained Asia-Pacific peace rerates the regional equity risk premium?
22%▼ 3–10 years
What if Cross-strait integration pact slashes the invasion risk premium?
22%▼ 3–10 years
What if China-Taiwan peace treaty framework removes the war-risk tail?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Moldova locks in EU accession?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Greenland rare-earth mine breaks China's grip?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Pipeline bypass routes blunt the Hormuz weapon?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Arctic resource scramble raises great-power friction?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if Iran export crackdown pulls 1 mb/d of barrels off the water?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if Mexico silver-mine suspensions tighten global concentrate?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Permitting paralysis stalls US copper at Resolution and beyond?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if South-Asia rice-export curbs stoke import-country food unrest?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if Suez-Bab-el-Mandeb diversions lengthen grain supply chains?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if Bread-price shock sparks street unrest across import economies?
22%▲ 0–6 months
What if Grain-corridor breakdown re-spikes wheat and import-FX stress?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Grand-bargain US-China detente caps the defense-spending trajectory?
22%▲ 3–10 years
What if Climate-stressed Sahel youth boom becomes a migration crisis?
22%▼ 3–10 years
What if Syria return-and-reconstruction boom lifts regional trade (good)?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if EU far-right wave fragments fiscal and migration policy?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Saudi Arabia starts pricing its oil off the dollar?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if India diverts the Indus and chokes Pakistan's water?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US launches direct strikes on cartels in Mexico?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if a US-China tariff exchange escalates past 100% in successive rounds?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if reinstated and broadened Section-232 steel and aluminium tariffs trigger retaliatory metals duties globally?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if a friend-shoring scramble triggers a costly duplicative capex wave that raises goods costs structurally?
21%▼ 3–10 years
What if China-Vietnam agree a joint development zone in disputed seas?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Quad maritime-security pact stabilizes Indo-Pacific sea lanes?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Comprehensive US-China deal eases tariffs and Taiwan tension?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if ASEAN-China joint patrols ease South China Sea tanker war-risk?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Broad Asia détente: Taiwan, Korea and the SCS all cool together?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if US aid cutoff opens a 2027 funding cliff?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if Red Sea reopens to Suez, freight collapses?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Red Sea convoy regime restores tanker flows?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if Gaza reconstruction unlocked under truce?
21%▲ 0–6 months
What if Red Sea attacks choke Bab-el-Mandeb shipping?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Nile water clash flares over GERD reservoir filling?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if Boko Haram resurgence displaces northeast Nigeria?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if Strait-of-Hormuz threat spikes oil and vol?
21%▲ 0–6 months
What if Indonesia social unrest over taxes rattles Jakarta market?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Azerbaijan becomes the EU's strategic gas-diversification partner?
21%▲ 0–6 months
What if Sanctions on Russian Nornickel palladium spark supply scare?
21%▲ 0–6 months
What if Nornickel Arctic smelter fault cuts global palladium supply?
21%▲ 0–6 months
What if Defense rearmament lifts industrial-metals demand?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if Indonesian HPAL tailings disaster halts nickel sulfate output?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if Niger and Mali coup risk severs French uranium supply?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if Madagascar and Mozambique graphite disruption tightens flake?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Transboundary river dispute curbs downstream irrigation water?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Israel bombs Iran's nuclear sites and Iran retaliates?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Europe faces a new wave of mass migration?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if a border closure disrupts US-Mexico trade and labour?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bulgaria's euro adoption sparks an inflation backlash?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Houthi missiles seal the Bab el-Mandeb strait?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if a poisoned IT-monitoring update backdoors government and corporate networks?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US imposes full secondary sanctions on Venezuelan crude?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Mexico's Morena wins a two-thirds supermajority?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if a resource-nationalist president bans nickel exports and nationalises mines?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Israel revives its judicial overhaul and reservists refuse to serve?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if a cheap drone swarm strikes critical infrastructure?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Washington sharply tightens controls on advanced AI chips to China and closes third-country loopholes?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if China-Philippines reach a Second Thomas resupply modus vivendi?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if China-India BRICS-anchored détente deepens economic ties?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if North Korea backchannel freeze quietly removes the Korea discount?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if Europe backfills the US aid gap for Kyiv?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Ukraine EU-accession talks advance after truce?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-Greenland minerals-security deal locks in supply?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if Armenia-Azerbaijan sign a final peace treaty?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if Hormuz mines cleared, flows normalize?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Saudi-Israel grand bargain signed?
20%▼ 3–10 years
What if Multi-year Mideast calm compresses the structural risk premium?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if West Africa coup belt expands to a coastal state?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Sudan gold-for-weapons nexus hit by US sanctions?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Cartel infiltration disrupts Mexican avocado and lime belt?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Thailand political-fiscal spiral as caretaker cabinet paralyzes?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Kazakhstan attracts Western critical-minerals capital?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Chile lithium-and-copper state push reshapes mining ownership?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Palladium short squeeze on a Russian-supply headline?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Zambia-DRC copper-cobalt corridor disruption tightens supply?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Nation-state critical-infrastructure hack jolts the tech tape?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Venezuela normalization and return relieve regional strain (good)?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Ukraine reconstruction and reform anchor recovery boom (good)?
20%▼ 3–10 years
What if Regional adaptation aid stabilizes Central American migration (good)?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if a South African blackout shuts the platinum mines?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if Guinea bans bauxite exports after a coup?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Niger sells its seized uranium to Russia?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if sanctions choke off Belarus's potash exports?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Chinese dams trigger a Mekong drought downstream?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if ransomware grounds a global airline's booking systems?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if JNIM overruns Bamako and topples Mali's junta?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Niger Delta insurgency reignites and halts Nigerian oil?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if Libya's oil ports fall under blockade again?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if Colombia's peace deal collapses into full insurgency?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if the G7 seizes $300bn of frozen Russian reserves?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if container freight rates spike fivefold?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if universal US tariffs pass through to consumer prices and force the Fed to hold rates higher?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Beijing bans rare-earth exports and chokes defense, EV and wind-turbine supply chains?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if North Korea declares a testing moratorium for sanctions relief?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if China-Japan-Korea summit revives full economic cooperation?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Moscow retaliates for frozen-asset loan?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Sanctions partially lifted, Russian gas trickles back?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Kazakhstan opens a Trans-Caspian bypass route?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Zangezur/TRIPP route opens Caspian-Europe transit?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Normalization re-rates Tadawul and TASE?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if West tightens tech-export controls on China bloc?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Peru illegal-mining surge undermines formal gold exports?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if DRC-China cobalt offtake renegotiation rattles supply terms?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Platinum-group metals squeeze on a South African power crisis?
19%▲ 3–10 years
What if Climate migration: 1M+ displaced strain EU border politics?
19%▼ 3–10 years
What if Sahel stabilization and investment reopen supply routes (good)?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if EU-accession momentum anchors Western-Balkans reform (good)?
19%▼ 3–10 years
What if Sahel development-and-agriculture investment curbs outmigration (good)?
18%▲ 3–10 years
What if climate-driven mass migration destabilises whole regions?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if mass strikes and unrest paralyse a major economy?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if the far-right National Rally takes power in Paris?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Pakistan exits its IMF program and defaults?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Senegal's restructuring talks break down?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if a cyberattack shuts down major container ports?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russian and NATO submarines square off under the Arctic ice?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if an insurgent assault shutters Mozambique's LNG again?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if a heavy-lift rocket explodes with hundreds of satellites aboard?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if the EU retaliates against US auto tariffs with duties on American vehicles, agriculture and tech?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US and EU escalate secondary sanctions on banks handling Russian trade?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if sustained attacks force container lines to divert around the Cape of Good Hope?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if a severe drought slashes Panama Canal transits and reroutes US-Asia shipping?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US imposes a 10-20% universal baseline tariff on all imports?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US pressures allies to align tariffs against China?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Trump-Kim deal trades USFK posture for an ICBM freeze?
18%▼ 3–10 years
What if Pacific arms-control dialogue caps a regional missile race?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ceasefire collapses inside six months?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Baltic hybrid-threat de-escalation accord?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Putin-Trump summit yields a Europe security pact?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Baltic states finish a defensive border wall?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Air-defense breakthrough blunts Russian missiles?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Brent sinks as a ceasefire restores Russian flows?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if New Baltic LNG and interconnectors end Russia leverage?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Price-cap removal eases Russian crude back to market?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Black Sea demined, shipping and insurance normalize?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Iran ballistic salvo overwhelms Israeli defenses?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Houthi surge re-shuts the Red Sea?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Syria sectarian war reignites?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Rebuilt OPEC+ spare capacity caps the war premium?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Regional truce drains the Brent geopolitical premium?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Comprehensive regional security framework signed?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if Yemen peace deal ends the Houthi shipping threat?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Eastern Congo war triggers a cobalt export shock?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-China military hotline cuts miscalc risk?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if China-Taiwan economic blockade tail re-prices semis?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if Sanctions overreach fragments global payments?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if Peru downgraded as chronic political churn erodes governance?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if SSA political-risk cluster (elections, coups) spooks investors?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Political instability derails Pakistan's reform agenda?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Political-transition turmoil unsettles Bangladesh markets?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if Paris Club relevance fades as China and Gulf creditors dominate?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Kazakh CPC pipeline outage strands 1 mb/d at Novorossiysk?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Loss of Russian transit via Ukraine tightens European TTF?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if Swiss-refinery bottleneck distorts global gold bar flows?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russian PGM export ban whipsaws platinum and palladium?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if Chilean port strike strands copper cathode exports?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Seabed-mining moratorium kills the deep-sea metals thesis?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Kazakh uranium rerouting through Russia raises supply risk?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Myanmar rare-earth supply cutoff jolts heavy-REE feed?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if Submarine-cable sabotage degrades cloud and AI connectivity?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Venezuela migration wave strains Colombia and Peru fiscally?
18%▲ 0–6 months
What if US political-violence shock spikes the risk premium?
18%▼ 3–10 years
What if Iran opening and reintegration ease oil-supply risk (good)?
18%▲ 3–10 years
What if Sovereign BTC reserve race becomes a geopolitical scramble?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if India and Pakistan trade strikes over Kashmir?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Houthis sink a tanker and close the Suez route?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if a euro-area sovereign-debt blowout sparked contagion?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if civil war in a major oil producer cuts off supply?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if the EU freezes Poland's recovery funds over rule-of-law concerns?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Egypt's IMF deal collapses into default?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Egypt is forced to slash its bread subsidies?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if North and South Korean warships clash along the sea border?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Iran's proxies break the truce and saturate Israel's defenses?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if China bans rare-earth exports to retaliate against tech restrictions?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US imposes tariffs on imported chips and chip-containing goods to reshore fabrication?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if China Coast Guard 'customs quarantine' of Taiwan's Kinmen?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Russia gives North Korea advanced air-defense and jet tech?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Six-Party-style talks restart over North Korea's arsenal?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if China-Japan-Korea trilateral FTA talks restart amid détente?
17%▼ 3–10 years
What if Verified North Korea denuclearization roadmap lifts all of Asia?
17%▼ 3–10 years
What if Asia nuclear-restraint accord curbs a proliferation spiral?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Japan-Korea reconciliation thaw unlocks supply-chain cooperation?
17%▼ 0–6 months
What if SEK and NOK rally as Nordic war fear recedes?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if EUR rallies on a comprehensive European peace?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Arctic Council cooperation resumes, tensions ease?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Russian metals re-enter LME after a thaw?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if New START successor revives strategic arms control?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Peripheral spreads compress on a European peace?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if European troops deploy as a ceasefire tripwire?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Western reconstruction guarantees de-risk Ukraine bonds?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Covert Iranian enrichment breakout exposed?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Iran-Israel back-channel de-escalation holds?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Suez normalization rebuilds Egypt's FX buffer?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Gaza governance deal anchors a wider calm?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Vision 2030 inflows firm the Saudi riyal peg?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Syria stabilization dividend reopens trade?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Turkey-PKK peace ends a 40-year war?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Israeli tech recovery lifts the shekel post-war?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Jihadist cells reach northern Togo?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Niger nationalizes uranium, Western fuel tightens?
17%▼ 3–10 years
What if US-China cold-war détente stabilizes the system?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if South China Sea clash jolts global shipping?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Gold backwardation signals physical scarcity squeeze?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Cartel-driven port disruption snarls Mexican exports?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ecuador narco-violence shock derails the IMF program?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Political backlash against austerity stalls Sri Lanka reform?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Thailand political violence escalates into market-roiling crisis?
17%▼ 6–18 months
What if Caucasus transit normalization lifts AZN and KZT together?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Kenya fiscal-consolidation reversal after protest-driven tax U-turn?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Reserve-currency flight to the dollar empties EM FX buffers fast?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Peru Antamina disruption tightens copper and zinc together?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if South African rail-and-port failure throttles PGM and coal exports?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Sahel drought deepens food crisis and migration?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Peace-dividend disinflation: lower defense needs ease price pressure?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Tooling-software backdoor scare freezes fab equipment trust?
17%▲ 3–10 years
What if Sahel climate-migration tail drives EU border-spending surge?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Contested US election outcome stresses markets and plumbing?
17%▲ 3–10 years
What if Mediterranean migration surge strains southern-EU budgets?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Sahel coup contagion disrupts uranium and gold supply?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if Geopolitical shock briefly bids BTC as a digital safe haven?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if a US-Iran nuclear deal reopens Iranian oil?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil risk unwinds?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if an assassination attempt wounds a sitting US President?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if a G7 reserve seizure triggers flight from US assets?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US freezes Iraq's dollar auctions over Iran flows?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if Iraq openly busts its OPEC+ production quota?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if post-Assad Syria fragments into warlord enclaves again?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Ecuador breaks down into a narco-state?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if ISIS-K mounts a sustained offensive in Afghanistan?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Myanmar's junta collapses and the country fragments?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if US-China decoupling accelerates sharply and fragments global supply chains?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if a renewed Black Sea blockade spikes Chicago wheat above $12 per bushel?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if Beijing front-runs a US tariff hike with an immediate across-the-board retaliation?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if broad tariffs produce a stagflationary mix of higher inflation and recession risk?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Beijing extends export licensing to battery-grade graphite and antimony, squeezing EV and defense makers?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if multinationals accelerate China exits and FDI into China turns net-negative?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if trade reorganizes along geopolitical lines into US-aligned and China-aligned blocs?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if major partners coordinate retaliation against US tariffs targeting agriculture, aircraft and tech?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if supply-chain reshoring embeds a persistent cost-push inflation wave?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if China-Japan Senkaku standoff after a CCG incursion surge?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if AUKUS Pillar-2 expands; China decries a regional arms race?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Yen-carry unwind from a Korea war scare hits global equities?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if South China Sea oil-route fear lifts Brent and Asian fuel cracks?
16%▼ 0–6 months
What if Black Sea grain corridor fully reopens?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Front collapses at Pokrovsk after aid lapse?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if RUB rallies on ceasefire and sanctions thaw?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if POW-and-children exchange thaws negotiations?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if SGC/TANAP expansion lifts Caspian gas to Europe?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if DAX re-rates higher on a European peace dividend?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Gold gives back gains as Europe de-escalates?
16%▼ 1–3 years
What if Moldova energy-secures via EU grid integration?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Bund yields rise as peace and supply hit the haven bid?
16%▼ 1–3 years
What if Baltic-Nordic grid hardening reduces sabotage risk?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Iran HEU ship-out deal for sanctions relief?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if Gaza truce collapses into a wider war?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Lebanon disarmament deal sidelines Hezbollah?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hezbollah rejects disarmament, north reignites?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Saudi-Israel talks collapse, Tadawul de-rates?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Gulf arms super-cycle bids defense names?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if JCPOA-style deal revived with snapback guardrails?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Hormuz transit insurance normalizes after standoff?
16%▼ 1–3 years
What if Gulf-Iran economic interdependence dampens conflict?
16%▼ 6–18 months
What if Gulf de-escalation deflates the oil-vol surface?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ghana cocoa logistics seize on northern raids?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if AUSSOM funding gap lets al-Shabaab encircle Mogadishu?
Showing the top 500 by probability of 1,340. Open the full library in the Scenario Lab →