What if high energy costs and weak demand collapse earnings across the German chemicals sector?
Energy-cost inflation and weak demand drive a collapse in German chemicals-sector earnings, with BASF-style margin compression dragging the broader industrial complex lower.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Energy-cost inflation and weak demand drive a collapse in German chemicals-sector earnings, with BASF-style margin compression dragging the broader industrial complex lower. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -5.02–+4.8% · other way -1.52% (n=10) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.93–+0.77% · other way +21.08% (n=11) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.9–+0.87% · other way -0.74% (n=11) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.1–+0.93% · other way +3.35% (n=10) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.48–+0.27% · other way -0.13% (n=11) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.64–+0.11% · other way +6.17% (n=10) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.54–+2.59% · other way -7.85% (n=11) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.57–+0.02% · other way -0.95% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.42–+0.81% · other way -0.11% (n=11) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.5–+0.02% · other way +0.58% (n=11) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.39–+0.24% · other way -0.49% (n=11) |
| 13 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.99–+0.19% · other way +0.64% (n=11) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -8.57–+9.33% · other way +21.74% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 68% | 27 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.3% | 68% | 33 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.4% | 66% | 27 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +2.8% | 63% | 29 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 33 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 27 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 27 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 26 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 27 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.4% · 5d +1.4% | 57% | 7 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.1% | 56% | 32 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 32 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d +3bp ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 54% | 27 | 0.07 | · |