What if an energy cost spike forces fresh output cuts at German chemicals, steel and auto plants?
An energy-cost spike forces fresh output cuts and offshoring at German chemicals, steel and autos, deepening the manufacturing slump and stressing Mittelstand credit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An energy-cost spike forces fresh output cuts and offshoring at German chemicals, steel and autos, deepening the manufacturing slump and stressing Mittelstand credit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.8–+0.33% · other way -1.09% (n=11) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.21–+0.17% · other way +20.98% (n=11) |
| 3 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.26–-0.11% · other way -0.26% (n=11) |
| 4 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.0–+0.11% · other way +0.62% (n=11) |
| 5 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.66–+4.62% · other way -11.42% (n=11) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.9–+0.4% · other way +6.97% (n=9) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.39–+0.64% · other way +0.24% (n=11) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.92–+0.26% · other way -1.07% (n=9) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.64–+0.15% · other way -1.7% (n=12) |
| 10 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.87–+0.17% · other way +1.64% (n=11) |
| 11 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.03–+0.53% · other way -0.52% (n=11) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.64–+4.3% · other way +24.41% (n=9) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.36–+1.35% · other way +4.51% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.3% | 68% | 38 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -0.8% | 69% | 38 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.7% | 65% | 21 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.6% | 62% | 38 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -1.6% | 59% | 38 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 59% | 38 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -7.8% | 61% | 15 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.0% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.2% · 5d +2.0% | 56% | 38 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -4.1% | 56% | 38 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |