What if Ghana's debt exchange relapses and the cedi slides again?
A relapse in Ghana's domestic debt exchange is an idiosyncratic frontier credit event: the cedi and Ghana eurobonds reprice, but global HY barely notices unless it clusters with other African defaults. Rhymes with Ghana's own Dec-2022 DDEP standoff, which cratered local bonds yet left US HY untouched. The IMF/China are the key funders; the novel angle is that a stalled third review now bites harder given thinner G20 Common Framework patience.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Ghana's domestic bondholders reject revised haircuts, cedi resumes slide, stalling the IMF's third review. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.