What if bond buyers strike against the UK Budget?
A UK Budget that spooks gilt buyers spikes 30y yields and forces emergency BoE intervention — short long gilts and GBP, sell UK banks/homebuilders; the crypto-led cascade misframes a UK-rates event. Rhymes precisely with the Sept-Oct 2022 Truss mini-budget when 30y gilts gapped ~100bp and the BoE launched emergency purchases. Transmission: gilt duration sits in UK pensions/LDI; sterling and UK financial conditions take the hit. Forward angle: with the BoE's gilt-backstop playbook now established and OBR scrutiny tighter, a repeat is more likely to be pre-empted, capping the overshoot.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A UK fiscal event spooks markets, 30-year gilt yields spike forcing emergency BoE intervention. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.