What if Global working-age share peaks, trimming world potential growth?
The worldwide ratio of working-age to total population rolls over for the first time in modern history, shaving global potential growth and reframing the long-run return environment.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The worldwide ratio of working-age to total population rolls over for the first time in modern history, shaving global potential growth and reframing the long-run return environment. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Global growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.5–+0.77% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.58–+0.33% · other way +28.15% (n=11) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -6.1–+1.38% · other way +4.57% (n=10) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.3–-0.08% · other way -0.44% (n=11) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.24–+3.57% · other way +1.77% (n=11) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.42–+0.35% · other way +6.08% (n=10) |
| 8 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.32–+-0.0% · other way +0.05% (n=11) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.32–+0.48% · other way +3.09% (n=11) |
| 10 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.44–+0.53% · other way -0.57% (n=11) |
| 11 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.34–+0.34% · other way +1.24% (n=11) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.23–+0.32% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.97–+0.62% · other way +23.11% (n=10) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.3–+0.4% · other way -0.38% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.3% | 70% | 33 | 0.36 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -6.5% | 70% | 25 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -6.0% | 67% | 25 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 33 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.5% | 58% | 23 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.2% · 5d +0.3% | 57% | 34 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 33 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 33 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 52% | 33 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 52% | 33 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |