What if a cluster of GLP-1 pancreatitis deaths forces a black-box warning?
Cleanest chain: a fatal pancreatitis cluster + black-box warning triggers script cancellations — short the dominant GLP-1 makers (Lilly/Novo) and any single-product names, bid generics/alternatives. Rhymes with Vioxx (2004), where a safety withdrawal erased ~$25bn of Merck cap overnight. This is idiosyncratic pharma headline risk with near-zero macro footprint — the broad risk-appetite roots are immaterial; keep it as a single-name event short.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Cluster of fatal pancreatitis cases on popular GLP-1 drug triggers black-box warning and mass prescription cancellations. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.