What if GLP-1s reshape food, beverage and dialysis demand for a decade?
Sustained appetite suppression dents snack/soda volumes and slows new diabetes complications, a structural demand shift that lifts pharma while pressuring consumer-staples names.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Sustained appetite suppression dents snack/soda volumes and slows new diabetes complications, a structural demand shift that lifts pharma while pressuring consumer-staples names. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biotech breakthrough ▲ · Consumer spending ▼ · Longevity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move |
|---|
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 13 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.6% | 69% | 13 | 0.28 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +7.0% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 12 | 0.23 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 12 | 0.15 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 13 | 0.11 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d 0bp ↺ fades | 54% | 13 | 0.06 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 49% | 13 | 0.00 | · |