What if Gold-Bitcoin haven bid rises together?
Persistent fiscal and geopolitical anxiety lifts both gold and Bitcoin as parallel debasement hedges, even as equity risk appetite stays choppy.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Persistent fiscal and geopolitical anxiety lifts both gold and Bitcoin as parallel debasement hedges, even as equity risk appetite stays choppy. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▲ · Gold ▲ · Crypto confidence ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +4.9% hist -6.08–+2.34% · other way +5.87% (n=12) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +2.7% hist -5.41–+1.63% · other way -7.56% (n=12) |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +2.5% hist +0.47–+1.57% · other way -4.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +2.1% hist -0.58–+1.05% · other way -3.21% (n=12) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.9% hist -2.24–+5.93% · other way +5.85% (n=12) |
| 6 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.7% hist -0.03–+1.39% · other way -1.45% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.11–+0.09% · other way +0.28% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.03–+1.04% · other way +0.07% (n=12) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -0.2–+6.18% · other way -5.9% (n=12) |
| 11 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.13–+1.02% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist +0.88–+3.19% · other way -6.4% (n=12) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.33–+0.48% · other way -0.63% (n=12) |
| 14 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.01–+0.5% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 36 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -6.5% · 5d -1.1% | 72% | 25 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -2.9% | 73% | 22 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.1% | 71% | 24 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.0% | 71% | 24 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.3% | 71% | 24 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +10.3% · 5d +0.7% | 68% | 25 | 0.32 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -3.9% | 68% | 19 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 34 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.3% | 62% | 24 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.0% | 62% | 34 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.4% | 55% | 20 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +3bp | 55% | 31 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.4% | 54% | 24 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.7% · 5d +2.9% | 47% | 15 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |