What if Gold miners re-rate as bullion holds above $3,800?
A durable high-gold regime drives operating leverage and a re-rating in producers, broadening the precious-metals bid beyond bullion itself.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A durable high-gold regime drives operating leverage and a re-rating in producers, broadening the precious-metals bid beyond bullion itself. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist -19.08–+28.42% · other way -0.27% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.83–+1.49% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -6.19–+8.58% · other way +2.51% (n=8) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -3.84–+4.32% · other way +4.67% (n=5) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -23.34–+25.39% · other way -9.52% (n=3) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.72–+6.27% · other way -2.25% (n=5) |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.63–+0.21% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.41–+1.43% · other way -0.67% (n=12) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist -13.5–+28.85% · other way -7.9% (n=12) |
| 11 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.07–+1.12% · other way -0.04% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -13.2–+21.07% · other way -7.7% (n=12) |
| 13 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.42–+0.8% · other way -4.15% (n=12) |
| 14 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.03–+1.86% · other way -0.76% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 10 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 100% | 4 | 0.83 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -0.2% | 100% | 4 | 0.83 | · |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 100% | 4 | 0.76 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 100% | 4 | 0.65 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +27bp · 5d +3bp | 85% | 6 | 0.61 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +28.8% · 5d +0.0% | 78% | 4 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 78% | 4 | 0.43 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -0.7% | 82% | 5 | 0.40 | · |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 78% | 4 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d +1.4% ↺ fades | 78% | 4 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +8.4% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 71% | 3 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +6.3% · 5d -5.5% ↺ fades | 71% | 3 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +20bp · 5d -1bp ↺ fades | 65% | 8 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.0% | 65% | 8 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |