What if heirs dump inherited boomer homes faster than millennials can absorb them?
The real signal is chronic housing-supply overhang compressing builder margins and home-price growth over years — a slow drag on shelter inflation, not a credit event; rate-sensitive homebuilders and REITs underperform. Closest analogue is Japan's post-1990 demographic housing deflation, not the 2008 crash the analogues list. The crypto-led risk-off cascade is mis-scaled for a decade-long supply story — the slow timeline means almost no acute beta.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Heirs liquidate inherited boomer homes faster than millennials absorb them, adding chronic excess supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.