What if Hong Kong's office values collapse by half?
Grade-A office halving impairs HK developers first and then the banks financing them, so the actionable read is HK property/financials credit, not the modest HY/copper moves shown. Rhymes with the 2021-22 China-developer crunch (Evergrande/Kaisa offshore defaults) that froze property credit and bled into HK-listed names. Transmission: weak China demand and firm exits feed the office vacancy; banks mark down collateral. Forward angle: unlike 2008 this is a slow grind in values, so the tell is rising vacancy and falling rents impairing bank books over years, not a single Lehman-style gap.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Grade-A office values halve as firms exit, impairing Hong Kong developers and the banks financing them. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.