What if India permanently bans a major US social app?
A permanent Indian ban on one US social app is a single-platform TAM loss (Meta/Snap-type), not a US-China trade war — yet the roots route it through trade_tension, dragging in TSMC, the yuan and Alibaba, which makes no sense for a US-app sovereignty action. Real analogue is India's 2020 TikTok/WeChat ban, which erased ByteDance's largest user market overnight. Forward angle: transmission is to US platform ad-growth and to Indian incumbents that inherit the users — not to the semi/China complex.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. New Delhi permanently bans a major US social platform over data-sovereignty, erasing its fastest-growing market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.