What if Indonesia's nickel bet blows a hole in its budget?
Nickel below $14k blowing a hole in Jakarta's budget is a commodity-fiscal shock: the read is Indonesia-specific (weaker rupiah, wider sovereign spread) with copper/Freeport a loose industrial-demand sympathy, not a global event — the muted cascade is correctly sized. Rhymes with the 2014-15 commodity bust that hammered Indonesian fiscal and the rupiah. Transmission: nickel royalties underpin the budget after the downstreaming push. Forward: Indonesia's near-monopoly on nickel supply means a price collapse implies genuine demand destruction (EV/stainless), the real signal.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A failed downstreaming push and renewed nickel slide below $14,000 a tonne blow a hole in Jakarta's budget and sink the rupiah. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.