What if Indonesia's nickel bet blows a hole in its budget?
Nickel below $14k blowing a hole in Jakarta's budget is a commodity-fiscal shock: the read is Indonesia-specific (weaker rupiah, wider sovereign spread) with copper/Freeport a loose industrial-demand sympathy, not a global event — the muted cascade is correctly sized. Rhymes with the 2014-15 commodity bust that hammered Indonesian fiscal and the rupiah. Transmission: nickel royalties underpin the budget after the downstreaming push. Forward: Indonesia's near-monopoly on nickel supply means a price collapse implies genuine demand destruction (EV/stainless), the real signal.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A failed downstreaming push and renewed nickel slide below $14,000 a tonne blow a hole in Jakarta's budget and sink the rupiah. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.64–+0.73% · other way +11.6% (n=10) |
| 2 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.78–+0.07% · other way +1.37% (n=8) |
| 3 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.59–+0.7% · other way +1.34% (n=10) |
| 4 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.9–+0.22% · other way -1.92% (n=10) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.01–+1.36% · other way +21.34% (n=10) |
| 6 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.31–+0.24% · other way +0.13% (n=10) |
| 7 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.14–+1.59% · other way +5.52% (n=10) |
| 8 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.69–+2.09% · other way +3.41% (n=10) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.85–+9.21% · other way -9.6% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on MSTR; the +6.4% history is BTC-regime noise — SVB/Signature windows ride the 2023-25 crypto bull, a driver unrelated to an Indonesian nickel fiscal blowout.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -1.2% | 71% | 11 | 0.37 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -1.5% | 69% | 30 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.3% | 68% | 30 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.8% | 68% | 36 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 28 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -2.4% | 61% | 30 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +8.3% · 5d +2.1% | 62% | 32 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.1% | 59% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -3.5% | 59% | 30 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -2.6% | 58% | 30 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.3% | 56% | 30 | 0.11 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -10bp · 5d -5bp | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Nickel weak and downstreaming strained; sub-$14k fiscal hole over 18m plausible, not base case. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.