What if Indonesia nickel glut crashes LME price, downstream margins?
Indonesia's own surging output floods the market and collapses LME nickel prices, squeezing the smelter sector it built and denting export value; industrial-metal softness and a weaker rupiah weigh on EM_FX.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Indonesia's own surging output floods the market and collapses LME nickel prices, squeezing the smelter sector it built and denting export value; industrial-metal softness and a weaker rupiah weigh on EM_FX. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Copper ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -6.36–+0.78% · other way +8.79% (n=11) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -8.19–+1.39% · other way -9.89% (n=8) |
| 3 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.7–+0.52% · other way +0.37% (n=11) |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.19–+0.15% · other way -0.2% (n=10) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -10.25–+1.31% · other way +1.7% (n=8) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.24–+0.38% · other way +16.26% (n=11) |
| 8 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.31–-0.05% · other way -0.05% (n=10) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.29–-0.03% · other way +2.32% (n=11) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.71–+6.95% · other way -5.53% (n=11) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.22–+0.86% · other way +5.18% (n=8) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.17–+0.05% · other way -0.11% (n=10) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.21–+0.23% · other way +3.4% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -1.8% | 74% | 33 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.3% · 5d -5.9% | 75% | 28 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -6.5% | 72% | 28 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.2% | 67% | 33 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 66% | 34 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 69% | 33 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.3% | 64% | 30 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 33 | 0.20 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.2% | 61% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +-0.0% | 60% | 33 | 0.15 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 33 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -3.6% | 50% | 33 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |