What if Indonesia palm-and-coal twin commodity bust hits fiscal core?
A simultaneous slump in palm-oil and coal prices, Indonesia's two largest commodity earners, gut export revenue and royalties at once; the rupiah weakens and EM_FX, food-ag and risk appetite soften.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A simultaneous slump in palm-oil and coal prices, Indonesia's two largest commodity earners, gut export revenue and royalties at once; the rupiah weakens and EM_FX, food-ag and risk appetite soften. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Food inflation ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -6.9–+1.32% · other way -6.59% (n=5) |
| 2 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.89–+0.07% · other way +1.86% (n=9) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.22–-0.12% · other way +0.6% (n=9) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.55–+0.53% · other way +8.98% (n=10) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -9.32–+1.44% · other way +2.12% (n=5) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.4–-0.02% · other way +1.89% (n=10) |
| 8 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -6.15–+0.85% · other way +6.96% (n=10) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.58–+5.8% · other way -3.18% (n=10) |
| 10 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.21–-0.01% · other way -0.25% (n=9) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.9–+0.75% · other way +4.7% (n=5) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.21–+0.09% · other way +2.35% (n=10) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.19–+0.36% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.7–+0.47% · other way +13.97% (n=4) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -1.8% | 73% | 33 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -6.1% | 73% | 27 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -7.0% | 70% | 27 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 64% | 33 | 0.25 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.1% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 64% | 34 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.6% | 64% | 30 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.5% | 61% | 26 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.2% | 63% | 35 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.0% | 56% | 33 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.0% | 56% | 33 | 0.09 | · |