What if Indonesia palm-oil price collapse squeezes terms of trade?
A bumper harvest and soft biodiesel mandate uptake crater CPO prices, cutting Indonesia's edible-oil export receipts and smallholder incomes; food-ag deflation and a weaker rupiah pressure EM_FX.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A bumper harvest and soft biodiesel mandate uptake crater CPO prices, cutting Indonesia's edible-oil export receipts and smallholder incomes; food-ag deflation and a weaker rupiah pressure EM_FX. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Consumer spending ▼ · Food inflation ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -9.86–+1.68% · other way -5.04% (n=10) |
| 2 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.05–+0.31% · other way +1.03% (n=11) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.22–+0.04% · other way +0.66% (n=11) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.3–+0.15% · other way +6.92% (n=11) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -8.2–+2.3% · other way +2.56% (n=10) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.39–+0.03% · other way -0.54% (n=11) |
| 8 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.42–+0.08% · other way -0.2% (n=11) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.17–+1.49% · other way +2.51% (n=10) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.13–+0.02% · other way -0.38% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.2% · 5d -7.6% | 72% | 39 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -5.3% | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -3.3% | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.9% | 63% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 56% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.8% | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.0% | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | · |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.2% | 46% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 46% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 46% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.2% | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +1bp · 5d +2bp | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | · |