What if collapsing trust in institutions drives capital into hard assets?
A broad institutional-trust collapse drives capital into hard assets: gold and BTC lead, DXY and the long bond soften on confidence loss, and US equities derate on a higher cost of capital. Rhymes with the 2011 US debt-ceiling/downgrade episode and EM confidence crises where gold and non-sovereign stores outperformed. Forward angle: this is the slow-moving version of the bond-revolt - the differentiator is breadth (courts, data, elections, not just fiscal), so the durable expression is a structural gold/BTC overweight and a steeper-curve, weaker-dollar tilt rather than a single catalyst trade.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A broad collapse of institutional trust drives capital flight into hard assets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.