What if the $35 insulin cap is extended to all payers?
An all-payer $35 insulin cap is largely priced — Lilly/Novo/Sanofi already cut US insulin list prices in 2023 and insulin is a small share of their GLP-1-dominated P&Ls; biosimilar share-shift is the second-order trade. The move is marginal for the makers and immaterial for the index. The small risk-off crypto cascade overstates an already-discounted, narrow event.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Federal $35 insulin cap extended to all payers compresses insulin-maker margins and accelerates biosimilar share shifts. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.