What if insurers drop obesity coverage and halve GLP-1 prescriptions?
Direct chain: insurers reversing obesity coverage halves paid GLP-1 scripts — bearish Lilly/Novo obesity forecasts, modestly bullish managed-care (UNH, CVS) on cost relief. Rhymes with the early restrictive-PBM-formulary phase of GLP-1 rollout that capped Wegovy uptake. Payer-vs-pharma rotation, not a macro event — the empty/near-zero cascade is right; ignore growth_surprise as a driver here.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Major US insurers reverse GLP-1 obesity coverage citing cost, halving prescription volumes and tanking weight-loss pharma forecasts. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.