What if Japan participation-and-immigration reform reflates demand (good)?
Higher female and senior participation plus targeted immigration reflate Japanese domestic demand and the tax base; stronger consumption and growth support Japanese assets and a mild reflation narrative.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Higher female and senior participation plus targeted immigration reflate Japanese domestic demand and the tax base; stronger consumption and growth support Japanese assets and a mild reflation narrative. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Growth surprise ▲ · Labor surplus ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.