What if frugal states kill joint EU bonds for good?
Killing a permanent common-debt tool removes the mutualization that crushed spreads in 2020; fade peripheral debt vs Bunds and short EU bank subordinated paper as the redenomination tail re-enters pricing. The mirror image is July 2012's pre-'whatever it takes' BTP/Bono blowout and 2020's Franco-German Recovery Fund rally that reversed it. Cascade routes the shock into Solana and Nasdaq, but the actual transmission is intra-eurozone: German core funds the periphery's backstop, and removing it re-widens that fracture, not US tech.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Frugal states kill a permanent common-debt instrument, removing the eurozone's mutualized backstop. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.