What if a Kenyan bank failure sparks deposit runs?
A large Kenyan bank failing amid mobile-loan defaults triggers deposit runs and a CBK liquidity backstop — a contained domestic banking event with no global read. Rhymes with Kenya's 2015-16 bank failures (Imperial, Chase, Dubai Bank) that prompted CBK intervention without systemic spillover. Kenya funds via eurobonds and IMF support; the novel angle is that fintech mobile-lending concentration is a new, untested transmission channel that could spread retail panic faster than the 2016 episodes.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A large Kenyan bank fails amid mobile-loan defaults, prompting deposit runs and a central-bank liquidity backstop. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.