What if Korea's record household debt forces a painful reckoning?
Forced deleveraging from 105%-of-GDP household debt as jeonse deposits unwind is a consumption-and-credit drag: short Korean financials and consumer-exposed names plus global HY as the deleveraging crimps growth. Rhymes more with a slow Scandinavian/Australian household-debt workout than a 2008 break — collapsing jeonse is a uniquely Korean rental-deposit deflation with no clean precedent. Forward: the jeonse-to-credit linkage has no analogue, so the speed of the deposit-chain unwind is the variable to watch.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. World-leading household debt at 105% of GDP forces forced deleveraging as jeonse deposits collapse and consumption craters. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Growth surprise ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.