What if Koruna outperforms as CEE safe haven in a risk-off?
During a regional wobble the koruna holds up best on Czechia's strong external position, widening its premium over the zloty and forint.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. During a regional wobble the koruna holds up best on Czechia's strong external position, widening its premium over the zloty and forint. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Credit spreads ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.92–+1.0% · other way -0.11% (n=11) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.17–+0.22% · other way +0.67% (n=11) |
| 3 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.46–+0.15% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 4 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.17–+0.11% · other way +1.38% (n=10) |
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 70% | 38 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +5bp | 64% | 39 | 0.23 | · |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 38 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 38 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.5% | 58% | 37 | 0.12 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.8% | 50% | 38 | 0.00 | · |