What if even Kuwait's dinar comes under pressure as low oil swings the budget to deficit?
Even Kuwait's basket-pegged dinar comes under pressure in a deep low-oil scenario as the budget swings to deficit and parliamentary gridlock delays debt-law authorization.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Even Kuwait's basket-pegged dinar comes under pressure in a deep low-oil scenario as the budget swings to deficit and parliamentary gridlock delays debt-law authorization. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Oil demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.15–-0.06% · other way +0.49% (n=8) |
| 2 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.27–+0.19% · other way -0.45% (n=8) |
| 3 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.25–-0.01% · other way -1.06% (n=8) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.54–+0.11% · other way -7.96% (n=9) |
| 5 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.12–+0.28% · other way +2.06% (n=9) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.26–+0.3% · other way +12.56% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.9% | 65% | 22 | 0.25 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.0% | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | · |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.4% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +1.0% | 52% | 40 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 41% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 36% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -4.3% ↺ fades | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.4% | 47% | 40 | 0.00 | · |