What if Kwanza collapses as oil receipts and reserves dwindle?
A combination of weak crude and falling output drains Angola's reserves, forcing a sharp kwanza devaluation and reviving inflation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A combination of weak crude and falling output drains Angola's reserves, forcing a sharp kwanza devaluation and reviving inflation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.96–+0.45% · other way +0.71% (n=9) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.5–-0.2% · other way -0.72% (n=9) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.1–+4.74% · other way +2.01% (n=7) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.37–+2.25% · other way +10.3% (n=10) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.32–+0.38% · other way -0.39% (n=11) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.5–+0.34% · other way +2.03% (n=7) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.6–+2.64% · other way +2.54% (n=7) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.45–+0.64% · other way -0.85% (n=10) |
| 10 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.36–-0.04% · other way -0.66% (n=10) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.66–+1.02% · other way -1.94% (n=11) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.7–+0.19% · other way +2.01% (n=12) |
| 13 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.44–+0.6% · other way -6.6% (n=10) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.19–+8.49% · other way +28.73% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 37 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 34 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.1% · 5d +2.8% | 58% | 12 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 58% | 34 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.2% · 5d -6.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 16 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 55% | 34 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.3% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 18 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 34 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 34 | 0.05 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d +4.1% ↺ fades | 51% | 36 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -4.1% | 51% | 34 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +2bp | 51% | 40 | 0.01 | ✓ matches cascade |