What if colistin resistance goes global and the last-resort antibiotic fails?
Honest read: global colistin resistance removing the last-line antibiotic triggers emergency AMR-development funding — bullish antibiotic-pipeline and diagnostics names, a slow public-health spend story, not a mobility/oil event. No clean market analogue; the COVID-circuit-breaker tags don't fit. As with the other AMR scenarios, the crude/energy cascade mis-routes the shock through oil demand that doesn't move — reframe as a small risk-off with a sector long, not an energy short.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Colistin resistance goes global, eliminating the last-line antibiotic and triggering emergency antibiotic-development funding mandates. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.