What if bank-loan fund outflows accelerate as the Fed signals rate cuts?
Bank-loan fund outflows accelerate as the Fed signals cuts, removing a marginal buyer and pressuring loan prices independent of credit fundamentals.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Bank-loan fund outflows accelerate as the Fed signals cuts, removing a marginal buyer and pressuring loan prices independent of credit fundamentals. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Fed policy path ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -6.51–+1.3% · other way +17.19% (n=11) |
| 2 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.98–+0.02% · other way -0.03% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.82–+0.04% · other way -0.69% (n=11) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.23–+1.65% · other way -3.43% (n=10) |
| 5 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.48–+5.9% · other way -3.7% (n=11) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.03–+4.83% · other way -3.08% (n=10) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.4–-0.08% · other way -0.54% (n=12) |
| 9 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.16–+0.23% · other way +0.56% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -8.73–+4.74% · other way -0.32% (n=10) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.75–+1.58% · other way +0.1% (n=11) |
| 12 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.84–+0.08% · other way +2.68% (n=11) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.07–+0.28% · other way +1.31% (n=11) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.39–+0.47% · other way -0.2% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 25 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -1.6% | 83% | 6 | 0.54 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -6.1% | 80% | 5 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 70% | 20 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.8% | 68% | 25 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -3.1% | 68% | 22 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.6% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 64% | 14 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -12bp · 5d -7bp | 64% | 25 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.5% | 59% | 22 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 22 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -1.6% | 60% | 5 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -14bp · 5d -8bp | 56% | 25 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 22 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -3.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 22 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -4.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 24 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |