What if LNG-price spike blows out Egypt's energy-import bill?
A global LNG price spike forces Egypt to pay up for winter cargoes just as gas output sags, widening the trade deficit and pressuring the pound and reserves at once.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A global LNG price spike forces Egypt to pay up for winter cargoes just as gas output sags, widening the trade deficit and pressuring the pound and reserves at once. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Natural gas ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.22–+6.96% · other way +0.61% (n=11) |
| 2 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.43–+0.81% · other way -0.03% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -6.17–+1.63% · other way +12.35% (n=12) |
| 5 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.34–-0.17% · other way -0.32% (n=12) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.52–+0.28% · other way +4.65% (n=11) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.86–+0.13% · other way +27.66% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.23–+0.43% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 9 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.26–-0.06% · other way -0.78% (n=12) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.01–+2.91% · other way -6.9% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.36–+0.47% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.81–+2.54% · other way +7.67% (n=11) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.32–+0.06% · other way +0.22% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.86–+6.27% · other way +25.88% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 38 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -4.1% | 67% | 27 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 67% | 30 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.3% · 5d -4.5% ↺ fades | 64% | 14 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +6.8% · 5d +1.4% | 60% | 10 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 27 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 15 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 26 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.0% | 56% | 27 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.6% · 5d +4.1% | 57% | 28 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 27 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 54% | 38 | 0.08 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +4bp | 52% | 37 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 52% | 27 | 0.04 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.1% | 52% | 27 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |