What if Lula loses Brazil's presidency to the far right?
A Bolsonarist win on austerity sparks a relief Bovespa/BRL rally that then cracks on institutional-clash risk — fade the initial pop in Brazil equities and the real once rule-of-law headlines hit. Rhymes with Bolsonaro's 2018 election rally that later faded, and Milei's 2023 honeymoon-then-volatility. Transmission runs through commodity exporters and EM carry; the muted crypto cascade understates the local-asset whipsaw.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Bolsonarist wins presidency on fiscal-austerity platform, Bovespa rallies then cracks on institutional-clash risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ · EM currencies ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.