What if Manufactured and modular housing scales the affordable-supply gap?
Factory-built manufactured and modular homes gain share as the cheapest path to new supply, expanding affordable inventory and supporting volume builders and building-products makers; the productivity channel eases shelter costs.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Factory-built manufactured and modular homes gain share as the cheapest path to new supply, expanding affordable inventory and supporting volume builders and building-products makers; the productivity channel eases shelter costs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.