What if Medicaid cuts and coverage losses dent hospital and provider volumes?
Federal Medicaid eligibility cuts raise the uninsured rate, lifting hospital bad debt and denting elective volumes, pressuring providers and device makers.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Federal Medicaid eligibility cuts raise the uninsured rate, lifting hospital bad debt and denting elective volumes, pressuring providers and device makers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biotech breakthrough ▼ · Consumer spending ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -9.24–+3.77% |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.1–+1.99% |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.82–+10.98% |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.37–+0.25% |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.26–+2.32% |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.52–+5.55% |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.57–+0.68% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 18 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -8.9% | 80% | 11 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.5% | 70% | 17 | 0.32 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.8% · 5d -5.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 14 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 16 | 0.16 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 16 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.0% | 55% | 16 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -7.7% | 55% | 12 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 17 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +1bp | 52% | 17 | 0.03 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -5.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 17 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 44% | 15 | 0.00 | · |