What if flooding and saltwater intrusion cut rice output across Asian river deltas?
Flooding and saltwater intrusion across the Mekong and other Asian deltas cut rice output and displace populations, the chronic-and-acute climate channel the ADB and IMF flag for regional food supply.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Flooding and saltwater intrusion across the Mekong and other Asian deltas cut rice output and displace populations, the chronic-and-acute climate channel the ADB and IMF flag for regional food supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.