What if flooding and saltwater intrusion cut rice output across Asian river deltas?
Flooding and saltwater intrusion across the Mekong and other Asian deltas cut rice output and displace populations, the chronic-and-acute climate channel the ADB and IMF flag for regional food supply.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Flooding and saltwater intrusion across the Mekong and other Asian deltas cut rice output and displace populations, the chronic-and-acute climate channel the ADB and IMF flag for regional food supply. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.19–+1.36% · other way -1.94% (n=12) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.29–+1.7% · other way -0.85% (n=12) |
| 3 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.54–+0.45% · other way -0.59% (n=12) |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.13–+0.3% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 5 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.38–+0.03% · other way -0.57% (n=12) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.5–+1.11% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 7 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.42–+1.08% · other way +13.7% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 36 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -3.6% | 64% | 22 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 22 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.8% · 5d +8.3% | 58% | 24 | 0.15 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 22 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.7% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 14 | 0.12 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 22 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 55% | 22 | 0.09 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 22 | 0.08 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 45% | 22 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 45% | 22 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 41% | 22 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.3% | 50% | 36 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +1bp · 5d +2bp | 45% | 36 | 0.00 | · |