What if a personalised mRNA cancer vaccine wins approval?
Cleanest chain: an approved personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine with durable remissions re-rates mRNA platforms and oncology pipelines — long Moderna/BioNTech and the personalized-cancer-vaccine complex on a validated second act beyond COVID. Rhymes with the late-2023 Moderna/Merck mRNA-4157 Phase-2 melanoma readout that spiked both names double digits. Sector re-rate with limited macro spillover — the small risk-on cascade is right-sized; trade the mRNA-platform basket.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine wins approval with durable remissions, rerating mRNA platforms and oncology pipelines sharply higher. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.