What if Mumbai developer debt triggers an NBFC funding crunch?
Clean chain: stalled Mumbai luxury projects + developer leverage trigger an NBFC funding freeze, widening Indian credit spreads and hitting HFC/bank names — a localized liquidity squeeze. This is almost exactly the 2018 IL&FS/DHFL shock, which froze NBFC funding and knocked ~15% off the Nifty Financial index. Transmission is domestic-credit, with limited global spillover; the US-centric JPMorgan/MSTR cascade is wrong-venue — trade Indian financials / INR, not global HY.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Indian developer leverage and stalled luxury projects trigger an NBFC funding squeeze and unsold-inventory writedowns. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.