What if Nickel glut from Indonesian output crushes battery-metal prices?
A flood of low-cost Indonesian nickel pig-iron and MHP overwhelms demand, collapsing nickel prices and dragging the battery-metals complex into surplus.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A flood of low-cost Indonesian nickel pig-iron and MHP overwhelms demand, collapsing nickel prices and dragging the battery-metals complex into surplus. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Consumer spending ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.59–+1.02% · other way -12.64% (n=5) |
| 2 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.07–+0.18% · other way -9.18% (n=5) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.67–+0.95% · other way -13.6% (n=4) |
| 4 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.84–+0.21% · other way -0.52% (n=12) |
| 5 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.9–+0.63% · other way -9.66% (n=5) |
| 6 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.23–+0.47% · other way -7.85% (n=5) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -6.81–+1.86% |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.1–+5.33% · other way +5.19% (n=5) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.04–+0.13% · other way -0.47% (n=6) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.07–+2.58% · other way +102.88% (n=4) |
| 12 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.91–+2.36% · other way +53.08% (n=4) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.5% | 65% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.1% | 65% | 39 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -2.9% | 65% | 40 | 0.26 | · |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.8% | 63% | 39 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -14.1% | 67% | 21 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.3% | 62% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 39 | 0.22 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.4% | 59% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -4.2% | 57% | 32 | 0.11 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.0% · 5d -4.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | · |