What if low oil revenue forces further naira devaluation and fuel-subsidy cuts?
Low oil revenue forces further naira devaluation and fuel-subsidy adjustment, spiking inflation and stressing Nigerian banks' FX-mismatched balance sheets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Low oil revenue forces further naira devaluation and fuel-subsidy adjustment, spiking inflation and stressing Nigerian banks' FX-mismatched balance sheets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.64–+0.28% · other way +0.38% (n=9) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.36–-0.1% · other way -1.01% (n=9) |
| 3 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.56–+0.03% · other way -0.62% (n=10) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.42–+0.36% · other way +12.35% (n=10) |
| 5 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.44–+0.43% · other way -0.47% (n=9) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.28–+0.4% · other way +0.03% (n=11) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.47–+0.78% · other way -5.78% (n=11) |
| 8 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.17–+0.3% · other way +1.88% (n=10) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.6–+0.93% · other way +3.26% (n=6) |
| 10 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.22–+0.5% · other way +8.7% (n=11) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -0.86–+5.06% · other way +16.9% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist +0.57–+1.1% · other way +17.6% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.26–+0.22% · other way -1.8% (n=10) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.34–+0.41% · other way -0.52% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.1% | 72% | 37 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 36 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d 0bp | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.3% | 60% | 36 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 36 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 36 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d +3.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 36 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 54% | 39 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 42% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 44% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 47% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 42% | 28 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |