What if Nigeria gas-export pipeline to Europe transforms the trade balance?
Completion of the Trans-Saharan or NLNG expansion lets Nigeria export far more gas to Europe, structurally improving its current account and the naira.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Completion of the Trans-Saharan or NLNG expansion lets Nigeria export far more gas to Europe, structurally improving its current account and the naira. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · European energy ▼ · Global growth ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.02–+1.33% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.11–+0.24% · other way +0.6% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -3.27–+1.41% · other way +1.0% (n=7) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.16–+0.8% · other way +0.59% (n=7) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.35–+12.9% · other way +7.24% (n=12) |
| 7 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.69–+0.19% · other way -0.32% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.36–+0.28% · other way +0.56% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.63–+1.59% · other way +0.43% (n=10) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.08–+0.17% · other way +0.07% (n=12) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.69–+1.76% · other way -1.03% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.97–+0.24% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.46–+1.11% · other way -0.11% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 71% | 39 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +6bp | 73% | 40 | 0.38 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.1% | 71% | 39 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 72% | 38 | 0.31 | · |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 38 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.7% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -2.9% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 39 | 0.16 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -6.7% | 60% | 38 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.0% | 59% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 38 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 50% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 50% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 50% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |