What if Nigeria gas-export pipeline to Europe transforms the trade balance?
Completion of the Trans-Saharan or NLNG expansion lets Nigeria export far more gas to Europe, structurally improving its current account and the naira.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Completion of the Trans-Saharan or NLNG expansion lets Nigeria export far more gas to Europe, structurally improving its current account and the naira. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · European energy ▼ · Global growth ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.