What if Nigeria defaults on its naira debt?
Nigeria restructuring local-currency bonds after an FX collapse inflicts losses on domestic banks and pensions; the global spillover is a small safe-haven bid to USTs/USD. Ghana's 2022-23 domestic debt exchange (DDEP) is the direct template, which gutted local bank capital while barely registering globally. Transmission is domestic balance-sheet damage, not external contagion; the BTC/MSTR moves overstate a localized naira event.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Abuja restructures local-currency bonds after FX collapse, inflicting losses on domestic banks and pensions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.