What if Nordic CRE contagion: an SBB-style Swedish property unwind spreads?
A highly leveraged Swedish commercial-property group's refinancing failure forces asset sales and writedowns, pushing up Nordic property-credit spreads and the krona's risk premium; the contagion threatens European bank exposures.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A highly leveraged Swedish commercial-property group's refinancing failure forces asset sales and writedowns, pushing up Nordic property-credit spreads and the krona's risk premium; the contagion threatens European bank exposures. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · European energy ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.39–+0.6% · other way +12.28% (n=12) |
| 2 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.93–+0.91% · other way -13.09% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -10.96–+5.51% · other way -1.45% (n=10) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.44–-0.1% · other way +0.61% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.27–+1.74% · other way +5.69% (n=10) |
| 7 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.82–+0.01% · other way +1.87% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.51–+0.02% · other way +9.87% (n=10) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.13–+0.29% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 10 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.13–+0.27% · other way -0.73% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.39–+0.18% · other way +0.54% (n=12) |
| 12 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.67–+0.09% · other way -1.96% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.39–+4.92% · other way +20.12% (n=9) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.59–+1.36% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.5% · 5d -12.0% | 79% | 9 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.3% | 68% | 40 | 0.29 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 36 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 29 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.8% | 64% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +5.6% · 5d +3.4% | 58% | 9 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +5.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -5.8% | 56% | 13 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.2% | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -3.7% ↺ fades | 51% | 17 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |