What if Stockholm home prices crash 30% on rate shock?
Sweden's short-reset variable-rate mortgages transmit rate shocks almost instantly to households and to landlord SBB, whose refinancing wall is the pressure point — trade short SEK, SBB and Nordic property credit, widen European HY. Rhymes precisely with the 2022-23 SBB rout that forced asset sales and a dividend cut. The trigger is rate-reset mechanics, but anchoring on US fed_hawkishness misroutes a Riksbank/ECB-driven shock through US 2y/30y yields; credit and European financial conditions fit better.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Heavily indebted Swedish households face variable-rate shock, sending Stockholm prices down 30% and stressing property giant SBB. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.